The Escalating Conflict: Iran vs Israel, and the Threat of Global Warfare begin on the night of October 1^st, More than 180 ballistic missiles were sent towards Israel by Iran. The order to launch these missiles was given directly by Iran’s Head of State and Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran’s IRGC, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated that more than 90% of the missiles successfully hit their targets. However, Israel claims that most of the missiles were intercepted by its air defense system. The destruction caused by these missiles can be seen in many published images, including a 30-foot deep crater right outside the Mossad headquarters.

In southern Israel, there is the Negev Desert, where a large Israeli military base is situated, and many missiles were targeted towards that base. Although Israel asserts it suffered minimal damage from this attack, Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that they will retaliate: “Iran made a big mistake tonight. And it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.”

How Did Iran Get Involved?

The biggest question here is how Iran got involved in this war. The conflict that began last year with Hamas’s attack has now spread to many countries. Not only is Israel attacking Palestine, but it is also targeting Lebanon. Various paramilitary armed groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are involved in this war, with Iran now directly participating. This has led to worldwide media proclaiming, “We are on the brink of World War 3!” Some even assert that “WW3 has already started; WW3 is already upon us!”

How did things reach this point, and what can we expect next? It is evident that many countries are involved in this war, and if the situation continues to deteriorate, it could gradually evolve into a regional war in the Middle East.

Previous Attacks

(Iran vs Israel)

This is not the first time that Iran has attacked Israel this year. Only a few months ago, on April 13, more than 300 drones and missiles were launched at Israel. If you compare it to the October attack, which included around 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 110 ballistic missiles, the April attack was more extensive in terms of total machinery deployed.

The April attack was unique in many ways; it was the first time in decades that another country had attacked Israel. The last instance was during the 1991 Gulf War, when Saddam Hussein’s Iraq launched missiles at Israel. So what was the reason behind Iran’s April attack? Iran framed it as revenge, as just two weeks prior, on April 1, Israel conducted an airstrike on Syria’s capital, Damascus, killing 7 Iranian officers, including a top general connected to Hezbollah. Any country would react strongly to the deaths of its military officers, especially in such a high-profile incident.

The Dynamics of Defense

Israel claimed that the location targeted by its airstrike was a military building, not an embassy, and the officer killed had close ties to Hezbollah. Regarding Israel’s defense capabilities, it is essential to note that during the April attack, Israel received assistance from allied countries, including the United States, the UK, and even Jordan. The U.S. managed to tackle around 80 drones and 6 ballistic missiles, while British Royal Air Force’s Typhoon fighter jets neutralized several drones. Additionally, Israel’s F-35 stealth fighter jets intercepted 25 out of 30 cruise missiles.

Geographically speaking, Iran and Israel are approximately 1,000 km apart. A drone launched from Iran would take about 2 hours to reach Israel. This distance underlines the importance of a robust intelligence system for effective defense.

Israel’s Iron Dome is its most well-known defense system, providing protection for a 10 km radius and countering rockets launched from a distance of up to 70 km. The Iron Dome is not an actual shield; it is a missile system that detects incoming rockets and launches its own projectiles to intercept them before they can explode, a process known as interception. The Iron Dome intercepts only short-range rockets, while for medium to long-range missiles, Israel relies on the David Sling system, which protects up to 15 km in a 300 km radius.

However, the ballistic missiles launched by Iran during the October attack present a significant challenge since they are beyond the effective range of both the Iron Dome and David Sling. For these scenarios, Israel employs the Arrow System, with the Arrow 3 boasting the highest detection range of 2,400 km and an altitude of 100 km. The Arrow 3 system can detect missiles even when launched from near-space.

Financial Burdens of Defense for Isreal

Despite these advanced systems, Israel faces significant financial hurdles. The operation costs for these defense mechanisms are extraordinarily high. The Tamir missile, used by the Iron Dome, costs around $50,000 per interception. The missiles fired by the David Sling can cost about $1 million each, while the Arrow System missiles can run into several million dollars. During the April attack, Israel reportedly spent about $200 million in just one day. If too many ballistic missiles are launched against Israel, there is a risk that the defense systems will fail due to overwhelming numbers and financial limitations.

After the October attacks, Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, declared that these strikes were a limited act of self-defense, suggesting that Western countries should commend Iran for showing restraint. This statement was perceived as a threat, implying that Iran could have inflicted far more damage.

Advanced Iranian Missiles

Iran’s arsenal includes state-of-the-art missiles, such as the 2023 Fatah missiles and the Shahab-3, which have a range exceeding 2,000 km and are classified as hypersonic ballistic missiles. These missiles can travel at speeds of 18,000 km per hour, making them 15 times faster than the speed of sound, allowing them to reach Israel in mere minutes.

Many confuse rockets and missiles, but they are quite different. Rockets, like those launched by Hamas, are smaller and fired in a more rudimentary manner. In contrast, ballistic missiles are larger, equipped with precision targeting, and capable of exiting and re-entering Earth’s atmosphere to hit specific targets.

The Regional Impact and Proxy Wars

In the wake of the April attacks, the United Nations Security Council called for an emergency meeting to urge both sides to de-escalate. Groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis have attacked Israel for years, especially after Israel’s retaliatory bombings in Gaza, which have increased the frequency of these assaults. Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah are often referred to as Iran’s proxy groups, collectively known as the Axis of Resistance.

Hezbollah, in particular, is one of the most heavily armed non-state groups globally. Founded in 1982 during the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, it officially established itself in 1985, declaring its mission to eradicate Western influence and destroy the Israeli state. Following the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon in 2000, Hezbollah became a powerful political and military force.

As of October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched an attack on Israel, the situation escalated rapidly. The very next day, on October 8, Hezbollah declared a state of war against Israel. The Houthis, founded in the 1990s, have emerged as a significant player as well, opposing Yemen’s government and receiving support from Iran.

International Relations and Alliances

Saudi Arabia and Iran represent opposing powers in the region, often backing different factions. Saudi Arabia supports the Yemeni government, while Iran backs the Houthis. This pattern is mirrored in Iraq and Syria, where Saudi Arabia favors government forces, and Iran supports Shia rebel groups. The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by international alliances, with Western nations generally favoring Saudi Arabia and countries like Russia and China leaning towards Iran.

The current war between Israel and Palestine reignited last year when Hamas attacked Israel, prompting a heavy Israeli invasion of Gaza. This military response has led to widespread condemnation, with many referring to the actions as genocide. Between October 7, 2023, and September 22, 2024, reports indicate that 41,431 Palestinians have been killed, with over half being children and women, and more than 2 million people displaced.

The Continuous Cycle of Violence

In recent months, Hezbollah has proven to be a formidable force. In areas along the Israeli-Lebanese border, more than 80,000 Israelis have been forced to evacuate their homes due to ongoing rocket fire. The Houthis have disrupted shipping in the Red Sea, leading to trade losses estimated at nearly $1 trillion.

Although Iran had previously been indirect in its involvement, issuing statements of retaliation only after Israel attacked its interests, recent events, including high-profile assassinations of key leaders from both Hezbollah and the IRGC, have heightened tensions. Following these incidents, Iranian officials indicated that any attacks against their interests would provoke a strong response.

On October 1, around 7:30 pm, the IDF confirmed that Iran had launched missiles toward Israel, engulfing the country in sirens and warnings. An Iranian news agency cited the IRGC, claiming the attack was a retaliation for Israel’s actions against Hezbollah leaders. Although the missile strikes were alarming, they resulted in only one casualty—a Palestinian individual in the West Bank.

Despite the limited impact of the October attack, Israeli officials have threatened retaliation, with Netanyahu asserting, “Iran has made a terrible mistake; it will have to pay for it.” The cycle of retaliation continues, with all parties seeking vengeance for past actions, while innocent civilians bear the brunt of the conflict.

Conclusion

The ongoing situation reflects a series of retaliations where everyone seems to be seeking revenge. As United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres noted, the entire conflict should be condemned, emphasizing that it is innocent civilians who suffer the most in such escalations. The politicians involved often act without the support of their own people, perpetuating a cycle of violence that seems never-ending. Some attribute the ongoing wars to the influence of the Weapons Mafia, suggesting that arms manufacturers thrive in a world of conflict, selling their weapons to countries in need of military power.